Image 2: Baccarat 'Harcourt' Stem and Bar Ware, 20th century New Orleans Auction Gallery, New Orleans, LA (October 2015) Estimate: $1,500 – $2,500 Price Realized: $6,150 Image 3: A Baccarat Part Suite of Glassware Retailed by Asprey & Co. Christie's, London, United Kingdom Est: £2,000 – £3,000 Sold: £5,000. There's no baccarat secret pattern or cheat. It's just common sense and improving your chances through understanding how baccarat works and avoiding the most common mistakes. Before you play for real money, please be aware that beginners should read our ‘ How to Play Baccarat ‘ article if you don't know the rules by heart.
- Reading Baccarat Patterns Definition
- Reading Baccarat Patterns
- Reading Baccarat Patterns Worksheets
- Reading Baccarat Patterns Free
Everyone plays any given casino game in the hope of winning money. You might say it is a bit of fun and that is certainly the right approach but it is undeniable that things are a lot more fun when you are winning.
'Beating the house' is what we all dream of and over the course of history countless hours have been dedicated to dreaming up systems and methods that might enable this notion to become a reality.
There are many such systems touted as being able to achieve a positive result for the player. Very few work. Card counting in blackjack is one such strategy and spotting wheel or croupier bias at roulette is another. Almost all the others are either illegal (for example marking cards) or, quite simply, they do not work.
They say you never see a bookmaker riding a bike and if that is true then it is probably fair to say you never see a casino-owner flying economy either. The simple reason is that casino games are purposefully designed to give the casino the edge. A profit margin for the house is factored in and that means that on average, most of the time, they win and the player loses.
Luck can change that in the short-term. A system that your friend read about on the internet, or worse still paid good money for, cannot. Casinos continue to be opened and are generally glitzy, fabulous and cost at least eight figures to build. That should tell you something.
Does Pattern Recognition At Baccarat Work?
Did you read the introduction above? Does pattern recognition work? No. And No again. Just like pattern recognition in other random events such as a coin toss or roulette, it categorically does not work. Seriously, do not invest any of your time or money into investigating this, reading your friend's book, paying for any great secret or anything else because that will be time and/or money wasted.
If you walk into a bricks and mortar casino you may well see people making a note of the results in baccarat (you will see people recording blackjack results too) but it's a waste of time. Online and in some more modern establishments this is done electronically for you and actually, the fact that the casino are happy to do that should give you a really big clue as to the efficacy of any related system.
When it comes to baccarat, people will be keeping a tally of how many hands are won by the player and the banker, and how many are tied. This is the starting point for the concept of pattern recognition. Maths tells us that over an infinite number of hands the following percentage of hands will be won as such:
- Player wins 44.6% of all hands
- Banker wins 45.9%
- Ties occur 9.5% of the time
Pattern recognition and related strategies use these figures and recent results to try to obtain an advantage over the house. Pattern recognition usually refers to a strategy of backing an outcome which is 'overdue'. However, in another indication that perhaps this isn't the best so-called system, some use former results to bet the other way, believing not that one result is overdue but that the other is enjoying a streak and is more likely to come up.
Pattern Recognition: Player Or Bank Is Overdue A Win
The primary way some players try to use past results is based on erroneous maths and false intuition. There is actually a complex and seemingly plausible mathematical basis for this view that for a long time appeared difficult to refuse.
Let us assume that we are backing the banker (this is the best bet in baccarat and, if you are playing, it is the only wager you should ever make). We know that 45.9% of the time the banker will win. If a player records 100 hands and sees that the banker has only won 28 times, it is quite easy to see how some might be fooled into thinking they are 'due' a win. The win rate stands at just 28% against an expected ratio of more like 46%.
The complex mathematical basis that goes beyond a feeling that a win for the bank is overdue is based on the ideas that if the bank wins 45.9% of the time, it has to be more likely to win in order to reach that number. If the win rate is currently down at 28%, the only way it can achieve the 45.9% we know it will, is by the banker winning more frequently in the future.
Both a player's gut instinct and a seemingly more scientific approach to the issue are really false expressions of the same point. In a random event, such as a hand of baccarat (or a spin of the roulette wheel or toss of a coin), what has happened previously does not impact what will happen in the future.
The belief that it does is known as the gambler's fallacy, or the Monte Carlo Fallacy (following a reported incident in 1913 where black hit 26 times in a row at roulette, a one in 67m occurrence). Pattern recognition in this sense in baccarat does not work because no matter how many times the player has won, the odds of the game remain the same.
Moreover, what you perceive to be a statistically important anomaly in the variance, for example the banker only winning 28% of observed hands, is a mere blip. You have not observed the trillions of hands that have been played previously nor the infinite number of hands to come. Your 'pattern' is just a tiny sliver of random events that has no bearing on the future.
Is a Pattern a Streak?
An alternative way in which 'patterns' are used is to identify what players term 'streaks'. Many baccarat players view the lack of one outcome as a sign that the alternative bet is 'hot' and on a streak.
So in our example where the banker has won 28% of the time, we might assume the tie has hit a statistically typical nine times and the player has won a whopping 63% of the games. That strike rate is smashing the 44 or 45 wins that would typically be expected and therefore a player using the 'theory' (and we use that term very generously) of backing streaks would bet heavily on the player.
Some ‘strategies' that advocate backing on a streak might suggest you wait for a run of three in a row, or five in a row, or perhaps even more. If this was an event where past outcomes had any bearing at all on future ones, issues would still remain. Who decides how many results constitutes a streak? How do we know when the streak has ended or whether one reversal is just a blip? It's all just guess work.
However, these questions are irrelevant when it comes to baccarat because, as we have stated, each hand is essentially independent of the last. The reason we add the minor caveat of saying 'essentially' is that in baccarat, like in blackjack, the cards being dealt come from a finite deck (usually eight decks) and so each one drawn does alter future probabilities.
However, in baccarat these make virtually no difference to the outcome of the game. A player counting cards in blackjack can gain enough of an edge to beat the house's advantage. In baccarat they cannot even get close. Which returns us to the key issue, the 'patterns' and results of previous hands make no significant difference to the probabilities involved with future ones.
Conclusion: Pattern Recognition Is A Nonsense
To conclude we can quite simply say that pattern recognition is a total waste of time when it comes to baccarat.
Keeping a note of the results of past hands gives you absolutely no advantage when it comes to betting on future hands. Each hand is an independent event and as such it matters not whether there have been 10 ties in a row, 17 banker wins in a row or only one banker win in the last hour.
The concept of streaks or the alternative notion that a certain result is overdue are both 100% wrong.
- Appendices
- Baccarat Analysis
- Miscellaneous
Introduction
Baccarat is a game steeped in superstition. The vast majority of players keep careful track of the shoe history, either on paper or with the aid of screens that show every hand since the shoe began. There are various ways of recording this information. The companies that market the screens that display the shoe history present it in various ways, according to the most popular methods of trying to define patterns.
Before going further, let me give my usual comment on notation. When referring to an actual bet, I use capital letters. When referring to the player playing the game, I use lower case. I invite the rest of the world to follow this convention, to help avoid confusion.
For those who don't know me, let me take a moment to say that all this effort at trying to predict the next hand is a waste of time. For all practical purposes, the odds are the same for every hand, and the past history does not matter. Now before the perfectionists out there write to me, yes, I know if you had the use of a computer, a card counter could make computer-perfect decisions according to the composition of the remaining cards, which would very rarely result in an advantage on some bets. However, that is not what I'm talking about it. I'm saying that trying to find a pattern in past Player and Banker wins is as useless as predicting the next color in roulette (on a fair wheel) according to past reds and blacks.
Although I personally don't play baccarat, I have wondered for years about some of the tables in those displays of the shoe history. The staff at the Venetian has been very helpful in helping me understand, so that I may enlighten the rest of the world. So, with the introductions out of the way, let's get started. Here is a picture of a typical sign, seen at the Venetian. There are various components of display, which I will address individually.
How to Read Them
Bead Plate
This section above is called the 'bead plate.' It used to be that players could buy a tray with cubes with sides noting Player, Banker, and Tie wins. Wins are recorded as follows:
- Blue = Player win
- Red = Banker win
- Green = Tie win
The player starts in the upper left hand corner and makes his way down. When he reaches the bottom row, he moves over one column to the right and back to the top row.
Big Road
The next section, pictured above, is called the 'Big Road.' This primarily keeps track of Player and Banker wins. Tie and pair wins are also noted with slashes and dots. To be specific, a tie is noted with a green line through the previous Player or Banker win. A Player pair is noted with a blue dot in the lower right corner of the hand it occurred in. A Banker pair with a red dot in upper left. In the interest of simplicity, in this example there were only Player and Banker wins.Much like in the Bead Plate, the player starts in the upper left, as well as marking Player wins in blue, and Banker wins in red. However, instead of a solid circle, with a Chinese character in the middle, the Big Road has only the blue and red outlines of circles.
Unlike the Bead Plate, in the Big Road the player starts at the top of a new column with each change in Player and Banker winning. Note the grid is six rows deep. In the event there are seven or more consecutive Player or Banker wins, the results will move to the right, creating what is known as a dragon tail. In this example that never happens, as there was never more than four consecutive wins on the same side.
Big Eye Boy
With the next table, it is no longer so obvious what is going on, and it is here where I started to need help. As mentioned before, baccarat players are a very superstitious bunch. While the strategies they use to find patterns can be a complicated topic, one basic truth is they like predictability and repeating patterns. For example, if the last 12 hands were BBBPPPBBBPPP, I would bet that everybody at the table would bet on the Banker the next hand. Note how wins happen in groups of three. The Big Eye Boy table is useful in gauging how repetitive the shoe is. Red entries are a sign of repetition, and blue entries are a sign of a chaotic, 'choppy' shoe. It is important to note that in the Big Eye Boy table, blue and red are not associated with Player and Banker wins, as they are on the previous two tables.
The first entry in the Big Eye Boy table is the hand after the first entry in the second column of the Big Road, so that there is enough information to judge if a pattern is developing or not. Here is where the air starts to get thin, so pay attention. Every entry in the Big Eye Boy table, as well as the next two tables, will refer to a specific entry in the Big Road. Each entry in the Big Eye Boy is recorded as follows:
- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road, then compare the previous two columns in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Big Eye Boy. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Big Eye Boy. Otherwise, mark a blue.
In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move one cell to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.
In the event the Big Road forms a dragon tail, for purposes of the Big Eye Boy as well as the Small Road and Cockroach Pig, assume that the Big Road is infinitely deep, and ask yourself what would have happened under that assumption.
Note that if the Big Road consisted entirely of an alternating pattern of x Player wins with x Banker wins, then the Big Eye Boy would be entirely red.
To help with this part, I explain below every entry in the Big Eye Boy table that follows. I put the results in Excel so you could refer to the exact points in the grid I'm referring to.
For example, the first entry shows cell A1 on the Big Eye Boy table. This corresponds to the same hand represented in cell C1 of the Big Road table. Since cell C1 is the beginning of a new column, we check if the previous two columns are equal in length. They are, so we color the Big Eye Boy red for cell A1.
Big Road
Big Eye Boy
Big Eye Boy — Play by Play
| Big Eye Boy Cell | Big Road Cell | Color | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | |||
| B1 | |||
| A1 | C1 | Red | Columns A and B equal in length |
| B1 | C2 | Blue | B1 and B2 don't match |
| B2 | D1 | Blue | Columns B and C unequal in length |
| B3 | E1 | Blue | Columns C and D unequal in length |
| B4 | E2 | Blue | D1 and D2 don't match |
| C1 | E3 | Red | D2 and D3 match |
| C2 | E4 | Red | D3 and D4 match |
| D1 | F1 | Blue | Columns D and E unequal in length |
| D2 | G1 | Blue | Columns E and F unequal in length |
| E1 | HI | Red | Columns F and G equal in length |
| E2 | I1 | Red | Columns G and H equal in length |
| F1 | I2 | Blue | H1 and H2 don't match |
| F2 | J1 | Blue | Columns H and I unequal in length |
| G1 | J2 | Red | I1 and I2 match |
| H1 | J3 | Blue | I2 and I3 don't match |
| H2 | K1 | Blue | Columns I and J unequal in length |
| I1 | K2 | Red | J1 and J2 match |
| I2 | K3 | Red | J2 and J3 match |
| I3 | L1 | Red | Columns J and K equal in length |
| I4 | L2 | Red | K1 and K2 match |
| J1 | M1 | Blue | Columns K and L unequal in length |
| J2 | N1 | Blue | Columns L and M unequal in length |
| J3 | N2 | Blue | M1 and M2 don't match |
| K1 | N3 | Red | M2 and M3 match |
| L1 | O1 | Blue | Columns M and N unequal in length |
| M1 | O2 | Red | N1 and N2 match |
| N1 | P1 | Blue | Columns N and O unequal in length |
| O1 | P2 | Red | O1 and O2 equal |
| O2 | Q1 | Red | Columns O and P equal in length |
| P1 | R1 | Blue | Columns P and Q unequal in length |
| Q1 | S1 | Red | Columns Q and R equal in length |
| R1 | S2 | Blue | R1 and R2 don't match |
| S1 | S3 | Red | R2 and R3 match |
| T1 | T1 | Blue | Columns R and S unequal in length |
| U1 | T2 | Red | S1 and S2 match |
| U2 | T3 | Red | S2 and S3 match |
| U3 | U1 | Red | Columns S and T equal in length |
| U4 | U2 | Red | T1 and T2 match |
| V1 | V1 | Red | Columns T and U equal in length |
| W1 | V2 | Red | U1 and U2 match |
| W2 | W1 | Blue | Columns U and V unequal in length |
| X1 | X1 | Blue | Columns V and W unequal in length |
| Y1 | Y1 | Red | Columns W and X equal in length |
| Z1 | Y2 | Blue | X1 and X2 don't match |
| AA1 | Y3 | Red | X2 and X3 match |
| AB1 | Z1 | Blue | Columns X and Y unequal in length |
| AB2 | AA1 | Blue | Columns Y and Z unequal in length |
| AB3 | AA2 | Blue | AA1 and AA2 don't match |
| AB4 | AB1 | Blue | Columns Z and AA unequal in length |
| AB5 | AC1 | Blue | Columns AA and AB unequal in length |
| AB6 | AC2 | Blue | AB1 and AB2 don't match |
| AC1 | AC3 | Red | AB2 and AB3 match |
| AD1 | AD1 | Blue | Columns AB and AC unequal in length |
| AD2 | AE1 | Blue | Columns AC and AD unequal in length |
| AD3 | AE2 | Blue | AD1 and AD2 don't match |
| AE1 | AE3 | Red | AD2 and AD3 match |
| AE2 | AE4 | Red | AD3 and AD4 match |
| AF1 | AF1 | Blue | Columns AD and AE unequal in length |
| AF2 | AG1 | Blue | Columns AE and AF unequal in length |
| AG1 | AH1 | Red | Columns AF and AG equal in length |
| AG2 | AI1 | Red | Columns AG and AH equal in length |
| AG3 | AJ1 | Red | Columns AH and AI equal in length |
| AH1 | AJ2 | Blue | AI1 and AI2 don't match |
| AI1 | AJ3 | Red | AI2 and AI3 match |
| AJ1 | AK1 | Blue | Columns AI and AJ unequal in length |
| AJ2 | AL1 | Blue | Columns AJ and AK unequal in length |
Small Road
The next table, in the bottom left of the display, is the 'Small Road.' The Small Road works exactly like the Big Eye Boy, except it skips the column to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To have enough information to go on, the Small Road must wait until the entry after the first entry in the third column of the Big Road. Here is exactly how the Small Road is recorded.
- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road, then compare the first and third columns to the left of the new column in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Small Road. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell two cells to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Small Road. Otherwise, mark a blue.
In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move two cells to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.
Reading Baccarat Patterns Definition
The Small Road in the sign pictured was too big to fit in the grid, so the first four columns dropped off. They would have been BBRRBR.
Reading Baccarat Patterns
Cockroach Pig
The next table, in the bottom right of the display, is 'Cockroach Pig.' The Cockroach works exactly like the Small Road, except it skips two columns to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To have enough information to go on, the Cockroach Pig must wait until the entry after the first entry in the fourth column of the Big Road. Here is exactly how the Cockroach Pig is recorded.
Reading Baccarat Patterns Worksheets
- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road then compare the first and fourth columns to the left of the new column in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Cockroach Pig. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell three cells to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Cockroach Pig. Otherwise, mark a blue.
In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move three cells to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.
Other Statistics
Reading Baccarat Patterns Free
Finally, the above picture shows the upper right part of the display. The left part shows overall shoe statistics for how often each bet won. This is not a very realistic example, as I put in Player and Banker wins only, for purposes of example. The right part shows what will happen on the Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig according to whether the next hand is a Player or Banker win.
Links
Fate in the cards: understanding baccarat trends (part 1) and (part 2) by Andrew W Scott
Acknowledgements
Thanks to the friendly and helpful staff at the Venetian for suffering my many questions about this topic and letting me take pictures of their sign.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
